By SIVA PRASAD DANTU
Stock markets world over are attracting new comers daily, due to potential for attractive return on their investments. Global markets have turned out to be truly interdependent with liberalization of funds flow from surplus markets to potential markets that has already led to fair valuation of stocks world wide. How ever tools for prediction of stock markets are still evolving. There is need for increasing the accuracy of market predictions so that the interest in stock markets is sustained.
My area of interest in increasing accuracy levels of stock market prediction on day to day basis. The following factors need to be studied more and more in arriving stock market predictions on daily basis.
1. GLOBAL MARKETS: In these days of digital revolution, no market is insulated from the impact of happenings in other world markets. It appears as though they rise and fall together though they have little in common. For example with the time lag between world markets, we often come across the impact of US markets on Asian and European markets. This leader ship constantly changes. One day it is the turn of US markets in giving cues to the other markets to zoom, next day it is the Asian markets that give the lead. Another day it is the turn of European markets. Hence according to me due weight age need to be given to the trends in global markets to increase accuracy levels of stock market predictions.
2. NEWS STORIES: It is often observed that the markets react instantly to news stories. Especially on negative news stories the impact is more severe. For example a terrorist attack, a plane hijack, a statement by a world leader that can lead to war or tensions, a sudden fall of elected government, resignation by a big political leader often hit the markets with devastating effect. Hence news stories need to be constantly monitored and the investors need to be updated before the news impacts the markets to enable them to square up their positions and avoid huge losses. Hence due weight age need to be given for increasing accuracy levels in prediction of stock markets.
3. COMMODITY PRICES: Volatility in commodity prices are often seen impacting the stocks in that sector irrespective of the fact that there may not be loss or profit due to fluctuating commodity prices on the stock prices. An increase in Oil prices is often seen to lead to a rally in energy stocks or a fall in Oil prices leading to steep fall in energy prices. Hence due weight age need to be given to commodity prices on sector specific stocks. I propose the following weight ages may be given in increasing accuracy levels of stock market predictions on DAY TO DAY BASIS:
1. Stock fundamentals : 25%
2. Macro Economic factors: 15%
3. Futures and options: 10%
4. Global markets : 20%
5. News Stories :20%
6. Commodity Prices: 10%
Perhaps, these tools increase accuracy levels of stock market prediction and by using them the traders in the markets will avoid losses to some extent. No body can accurately predict where the stock markets stand in the medium or short term or long term due to the ever changing dynamics. The IF factor may not happen the way we predicted and hence the players in the market have to give due importance to the changing dynamics that effect the stock movement than merely relying on fundamentals of the stock.
general observations.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=SIVA_PRASAD_DANTU
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Stock Pick Guide
By Yulianto None
Stock Pick is the key of stock investing. With many stocks out there, we need to know which stock should we buy, and which stock we should sell. If you choose well, then you’ve reach glory, if you choose the wrong stock then might just say goodbye to your money. So how do you choose? If you want to go somewhere like your home, there’s maybe many roads you can choose. Different roads have also different characteristic. You’ll most probably choose the road which you like the characteristic. If you like the mountain scenery, you might want to go though the mountains. The same like that example, stock picking is very crucial. It’s actually the key for success, and the guide for glory. Just follow and stick with your stock pick guide, and you’ll reach your goal. But remember that there’s no guarantee that your stock pick strategy will be 100% accurate, because there’s a lot of factor which influence a company performance, and many of it is tangible like brand, employee competence, and human emotional.
Many people use screener as a strategy to pick stock. There are many popular screener, like Graham screener for the value investing method. You can modify the screener to fit your character. If you are risk averse or risk taker, you can change the screener to increase the effectiveness. Other poeple uses software like Vector2000 Stock Systems which gives advanced technical analysis and market forecasting for short term stock market trends, c/w trade recommendations, timing indicators, enhanced quotes / charts and MarketMeter. These software is made by expert which can make life easier.
There are various stock pick strategy, which are:
• Fundamental analysis , buying stock with good financial fundamental. Fundamental analysis is finding the fair value of a company. The calculation is done by using the time of money concept, which is money now is better than money in the future. By knowing how is the cash flow, the in and out of money, you can count for it’s fair price. That’s the difficult thing to do, because you need to predict how much profit will the company make.
• Technical Analysis , buying stock based on previous price data. Technical analysis is done by looking at previous price, and volume data. Technical analyst look at past chart of price and different indicator to make prediction about the future prices. The human emotion is an important aspect here. Their willingness to buy stock at a certain price will determine future price. This analysis assumes that price moves at trend, and history repeats itself. It is believed that this analysis is more art than science. Because of that, there has been plenty of critics to this analysis, due to lack of evidence of it's performance. But it is still a popular method in the world, through its easiness.
• Value Investing , buying stock which is undervalued. The concept is actually very simple: find companies trading below their inherent worth.
• Growth Investing , buying stock with high growth.
• Income Investing , buying stock which give regular deviden.
Please remind that it is very crucial for you to choose your own stock pick style, not following other people style. If it’s good for them, it might not good for you. So know your characteristic, and the stock pick strategy characteristic.
Yulianto http://www.stockpickguide.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles
Stock Pick is the key of stock investing. With many stocks out there, we need to know which stock should we buy, and which stock we should sell. If you choose well, then you’ve reach glory, if you choose the wrong stock then might just say goodbye to your money. So how do you choose? If you want to go somewhere like your home, there’s maybe many roads you can choose. Different roads have also different characteristic. You’ll most probably choose the road which you like the characteristic. If you like the mountain scenery, you might want to go though the mountains. The same like that example, stock picking is very crucial. It’s actually the key for success, and the guide for glory. Just follow and stick with your stock pick guide, and you’ll reach your goal. But remember that there’s no guarantee that your stock pick strategy will be 100% accurate, because there’s a lot of factor which influence a company performance, and many of it is tangible like brand, employee competence, and human emotional.
Many people use screener as a strategy to pick stock. There are many popular screener, like Graham screener for the value investing method. You can modify the screener to fit your character. If you are risk averse or risk taker, you can change the screener to increase the effectiveness. Other poeple uses software like Vector2000 Stock Systems which gives advanced technical analysis and market forecasting for short term stock market trends, c/w trade recommendations, timing indicators, enhanced quotes / charts and MarketMeter. These software is made by expert which can make life easier.
There are various stock pick strategy, which are:
• Fundamental analysis , buying stock with good financial fundamental. Fundamental analysis is finding the fair value of a company. The calculation is done by using the time of money concept, which is money now is better than money in the future. By knowing how is the cash flow, the in and out of money, you can count for it’s fair price. That’s the difficult thing to do, because you need to predict how much profit will the company make.
• Technical Analysis , buying stock based on previous price data. Technical analysis is done by looking at previous price, and volume data. Technical analyst look at past chart of price and different indicator to make prediction about the future prices. The human emotion is an important aspect here. Their willingness to buy stock at a certain price will determine future price. This analysis assumes that price moves at trend, and history repeats itself. It is believed that this analysis is more art than science. Because of that, there has been plenty of critics to this analysis, due to lack of evidence of it's performance. But it is still a popular method in the world, through its easiness.
• Value Investing , buying stock which is undervalued. The concept is actually very simple: find companies trading below their inherent worth.
• Growth Investing , buying stock with high growth.
• Income Investing , buying stock which give regular deviden.
Please remind that it is very crucial for you to choose your own stock pick style, not following other people style. If it’s good for them, it might not good for you. So know your characteristic, and the stock pick strategy characteristic.
Yulianto http://www.stockpickguide.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles
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